I personally am not an FBI agent, but I have watched BEVERLY HILLS COP enough times to know that “following the money” is a good way to catch criminals. And in this case, you need to follow the trail of dollar bills leading to these markets, where I am planning to commit an absolute bank robbery:
Polymarket has dangled $100,000 in liquidity to entice traders into these bets, so a lot of you have been asking what the right move is. That said, software development is not one of my core skills. I am pretty much only good at slamming Modelos, watching COPS, and anticipating the behavior of random politicians who most Americans could not tell apart from their Uncle Gary.
So first of all, h/t to Gaeten Dugas, who took his Sunday off from being a pandemic super-spreader and shared some bankable insights on both these bets. I encourage you to listen to the entire podcast we did together, which covers TRUTH as well as the Supreme Court.
But for those of you who need a TL:DR, or who just need a key-bump of gambling action, here’s where we landed:
- According to Gaeten’s research, no one at Truth Social has committed to a Feb 21 launch date. CEO Devin Nunes (yes, that Devin Nunes) has been saying “Q1 2022” is the expected launch. So the Feb 21 date itself is most likely fake news; and
- According to Gaeten’s extensive experience in software development, it would be pretty rare to ship a product like this on time.
The big risk is Trump himself, who has a long history of making questionable decisions that are often to his own detriment.
- Trump can’t blow this product launch. It’s likely his last best chance to build a microphone that can scale and amplify his voice to millions — a critical tool to maintain the stature he enjoyed while he was still allowed on Twitter and Facebook.
Yes, it would be Trump-like to release a bad product on February 21, but in this instance, it doesn’t seem like the risk/reward is right, or that anyone, including TRUTH’s CEO, thinks February 21 is realistic.
Gaeten has $7500 wagered on NO but at more favorable odds. I’m a little scared to get into anything I don’t full understand at 80c so will probably sit it out. You gotta make the call for yourself.
As for the second market, a March 30 launch, that is fraught with peril so let’s just not go there.
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