The Odds of War + 3 Global Leaders Who Are Putin’ Their Careers At Risk


Hopefully it is fake news, but according to Joe Biden, there is going to be a war between Russia and Ukraine soon.

The good news is that American presidents tend to be extremely bad at predicting these kinds of events. For example:

  • George W. Bush thought that Iraq was building nukes so we needed to do a war there.
  • His successor, Barack O’Bama, trolled Mitt Romney on live TV when he suggested that Russia was America’s biggest security threat. But after the next election, at least 99% of Democrats were high AF on key bumps of “Russia stole the election for Trump” conspiracy powder that Rachael Maddow jammed up their noses.
  • And most recently, Donald Trump pretty much thought he could tame Kim Jung Un in North Korea just by showing up with Dennis Rodman and throwing some money around the clubs in Pyonyang

So like I said, American Presidents tend to get really bad info on what foreign regimes are up to.

On this episode of SSG, we’re going to try and make up the slack. Special guest Matthew Shaddick, who is the head of political bookmaking at $markets, is joining to do a full European tour of the situation in Ukraine.

The Odds of War in Ukraine + 3 Global Leaders Who Are Putin’ Their Careers At Risk

Featured prediction markets include:

  • Will Russia invade Ukraine (Insight Prediction}
  • Will Joe Biden talk about Russia in his State of the Union address (PredictIt)
  • Will Ukraine win the Eurovision contest ($markets)

A conflict in Europe would also have massive consequences for the political systems in peer nations. So we are going to check in on the election odds for:

  • Emmanuel Macron in France
  • Boris Johnson possibly stepping out of doo-doo in the UK; and
  • Vlad Putin creating his own leadership crisis by starting a dumb war

And lastly, Russia is not the only authoritarian regime on the march.

Hardline Canadian Premiere Justin Trudeau is also working night-and-day to crush a peasant rebellion led by truckers who are protesting vaccine mandates as well as pretty much anything else that has ever crossed their minds while driving across Saskatchewan and pounding Joe Rogan.

This is a wide-ranging episode about pretty much everything that’s happening on the planet and we are very lucky to have arguably the world’s top expert in political gambling, Matthew Shaddick, join for the ride. Do not deprive yourself of these crucial insights for your betting prowess.



First-time Kalshi user? Join the $30M Silicon Valley prediction market with some free swag. Sign up with the SSG Members referral code and get free swag + hook it up for your boys here.

Claim a $50 matching bonus on America’s largest (legal) political gambling exchange. Just click here and receive a $50 match.


Support SSG. Members get access to early picks and exclusive content.
Become a patron at Patreon!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *