I personally do not think math is a good idea. This is due to the fact that whenever I count the number of dollars in my bank account, it is usally less than zero. Honestly, the only thing I have ever enjoyed tabulating is the number of Xany bars it takes to get through election night when PredictIt crashes.
But as you are aware, Joe Biden’s main legislative achievement in 2022 has been quantitative: he has succeeded in increasing prices of everything with some absolutely epic inflation.
The economy, inflation, and potential for recession is 100% the most important story in politics.
Animals, you are kidding yourself if you don’t think the economy isn’t the first thing on Joe Biden’s mind. Every election and agenda item will pivot on whether or not inflation quits ripping. Understanding what is happening in the economy is a must for anyone betting on other political outcomes that are correlated.
Which brings us to this edition of SSG:
Will there be a recession this year?
That’s a tough one, hombre. And if you’re betting on Kalshi, then you are swimming in some very sharky waters. This is due to the fact that many people betting on economic data are doing so from Wall Street offices using serious tools that I am too dumb to even know about.
However, SSG contributor Delta Bjork (who for some reason does not want to be identified as Mark Davis this time around), has found a strategy to beat these sharps. He told SSG that:
“If you go to the Philly Fed– the Philadelphia central bank puts out a survey of forecasters.”
He’s using this Federal Reserve forecast as a north star.
He added that, “The Fed’s survey of forecasters says there’s a 15% chance [of a recession] in the 2nd quarter. That’s a lot more than 7c,” a reference to the current Kalshi market, which thinks a recession is much less likely (5%) than the Fed’s forecast (15%). Check it out.
ARB THIS SH*T:
This sets-up a great arbitrage play between Kalshi’s market and the Federal Reserve’s projections.
Bjork is basically saying that his strategy is to bet whenever the gap between these two numbers gets too big to resist. Could be the over, could be the under.
Like I said, I personally do not like math and I 100% agree with the State of California, which says it is racist. Math definitely profiled me as a bonehead in high school, which should be illegal. That’s why you need to listen to an actual math guy (Bjork) give the full story on how to make this play responsibly.
There are some other important details to understand, which he unpacks:
- Rules cuck scenarios
- Rate hikes
- Gas prices
Get all the information here, as well as the scoop on 3 Senate primaries and Trump’s latest press releases:
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