Occasionally, we are wrong about things. And one of our bigger misses was betting against NATO expansion in the aftermath of the Ukraine war.
NATO Expansion in 2022 (Polymarket)
Our thinking at the time was that the application process, which is similar to rushing a nuclear-armed fraternity with 30 members who speak 12+ languages, would take too long to happen by Dec 31.
But the great thing about political gambling is that if you can spot your mistakes early, there’s always time to switch positions and grab the winning cards.
And that’s what we’re talking about on this episode of Star Spangled Gamblers: why conditions in Europe — more specifically, in Ukraine — are fast-tracking NATO membership for Sweden & Finland.
TL:DR – WHY YOU SHOULD BET ON NATO EXPANSION IN 2022:
- Many credible sources have reported that Sweden & Finland are going to apply for NATO membership in May/June
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has broken down unthinkable barriers and united the West around sanctions, military aide, and massive re-armament campaigns
- Being half-in, half-out of NATO during the application process will increase Sweden & Finland’s geopolitical risk to Russian reprisals
- Ergo, we expect that the same “fast-paced” spirit we’ve seen through NATO to also fast-track these new members’ admissions into the alliance before Putin can respond
BE CAREFUL THO:
- It’s critical to price into your bets that at some point, things will appear to go very poorly inside of NATO.
- Yes, some random Defense Minister in Slovenia or Slovakia is going to try to hold this up — but they will fail
- This podcast will explain the process so that you don’t get cucked by said Defense Minister
BEFORE YOU BET, UNDERSTAND THE NATO PROCESS THOROUGHLY:
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