The first big primary of the season is over. Trump-backed favorite JD Vance surprised many by winning this crowded field by a comfortable margin and political gambling markets are reacting bigly.
Regardless of whether you won or lost in Ohio, it’s important to digest the lessons learned from this first big GOP battle. Next up are primaries in Pennsylvania and Arizona that feature similar fields and will be a good testing ground for everything you learned in Ohio.
Basically, animals, you have 3 possible strategies. They are:
(1) NEGATIVE RISK
- So much dumb money is pouring into these high-profile primaries that you can play it safe, take the NO side on all the candidates, and collect a coupon no matter who wins.
(2) FOLLOW THE NARRATIVE
- In Ohio, JD Vance proved that a modified version of the Trump 2016 strategy is still a powerful one: use MAGA vibes to differentiate yourself from a crowded field, then employ billionaire cash to magnify that advantage
- In Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz, a TV star, has the ability to run this play in part
- In Arizona, the market already expects that Blake Masters will receive a Trump endorsement, and like Vance, get several million dollars of Peter Thiel’s money to supercharge it
(3) WAIT AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO BET
- There are key differences in each state’s political culture and each state’s field of candidates. I.E., the Ohio playbook won’t translate 100% anywhere else.
- Knowing this, it’s often a good idea to wait as long as possible to bet so that you can price-in the maximum number of movements.
- This will cost you upside, but is often a good way to avoid being cucked
HOW TO WEIGHT THESE IN THE UPCOMING GOP PRIMARIES?
For that, you gotta listen to this episode of SSG.
GET FREE MONEY AND SWAG TO BET ON POLITICS:
First-time Kalshi user? Join the $30M Silicon Valley prediction market with some free swag. Sign up with the SSG Members referral code and get free swag + hook it up for your boys here.
Claim a $200 matching bonus on America’s largest (legal) political gambling exchange. Just click here and receive a $200 match.