There are a few things that make me feel old AF. One of them is hearing DMX songs on classic rock radio. Another is the fact that I actually listen to the radio. And a third one is that is that in the 20+ years since DMX was cool, the nation of Colombia has gone from being the U.S.’s largest trade partner for cocaine and murder to arguably its closest ally in South America.
However, this 20-year-long partnership is now in doubt.
This is due to the fact that in this May’s Colombian presidential election, the frontrunner is a bro named Gustavo Petro whose resume includes being mentored by Hugo Chavez and chilling with Left Wing death squads that used to assassinate government officials. A Petro victory would be a massive setback for Joe Biden and American foreign policy.
Forecasting this election is the subject of today’s episode of SSG.
For investors — betting markets are doing a terrible job of reading Colombia’s political dynamics.
Which is why SSG has brought in a ringer to cut through the noise and show you exactly where this race is headed.
That expert is IAN BEZEK, who many of you know as an erudite stock picker on SEEKING ALPHA, US NEWS, and his own podcast, BEZEK ON STOCKS.
Ian is a former Wall Street professional who has been living and working in Colombia since 2018, and living in Latin America generally since 2014. Ian is our special guest on this episode of SSG.
So get ready for his jungle cruise on…
IAN IS EYEBALLING A FEW MAJOR TRENDS THAT YOU CAN BET ON TOO:
As he told us on the podcast, “If this election had been six months ago, the Left would have won easily. Now that the economy has turned the corner, the Right has had a chance to catch up a little.”
Or in other words, Gustavo Petro is losing his lead to the candidate unifying the Right — Federico (Fico) Guttierez.
The question is whether Fico can catch up, or if Petro can run out the clock before the first round of voting on May 27. And there is ample reason to doubt that he can.
History has sown that Petro has the same problems that populists like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump do. Like them, Petro has a very strong group of core supporters but has struggled to build a majority coalition that can win. It has sunk his presidential hopes once before.
As Ian recounts, “Heading into 2018, Petro was polling at 40 percent and had a clear lead over everyone. And then in the second round he ended up getting 41 percent. So he had his base of 40 percent that would follow him anywhere, but he gained no support from when he was the frontrunner and the final results. That seems to be happening again. His numbers don’t go up.”
But, be careful. Ian was very clear, “He could win the election.”
If he does, it’ll probably be after a run-off election on June 19.
Ian expects a lot of price movement between now and then and has some expert tips on how to read Colombian polls for market-beating insights. It’s too much to recount in a single blog post. So just listen to the full podcast.
We get it. Foreign elections can be scary. History, culture, and political process are inherently difficult to grasp in lands unknown to us.
But Ian cuts through all of that with ease and is graciously opening the door to curious Americans who’d like to know what is happening in Colombia, and beyond that, how to make savvy bets that will pay at the end of the month. Don’t miss this episode of SSG.
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