It’s the Friday after a few key primaries in the South. And while everyone from the Bernie Bros to the Bush Family has something to complain about, President Trump receives the honor for being the week’s biggest loser.
Team Trump’s failure to defeat Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger – the two GOP officials who the former President blames for his defeat in November 2020 – lived up to the epic collapses we’re used to seeing from Georgia franchises like the Atlanta Falcons, Braves, and whatever campaign Stacey Abrams is currently behind.
Is it over for Trump? That’s what this episode of the podcast is all about.
THE TRUTH IS….
Trump remains the nation’s thiccest Republican and his endorsement is the most powerful in politics.
So while the mainstream media writes predictable headlines about Trump’s demise, we’re going shopping for underpriced bets on his inevitable resurgence.
WILL TRUMP BUST HIS SLUMP?
The books say there is a…
38% chance that Trump is the GOP nom in 2024 (PredictIt).
The former President knows he’d be a heavy favorite to win if he runs again. And does he really have something better to do?
We say: Buy YES and hold.
6% chance that Mike Pence runs for President (PredictIt).
Pence just did a sweep through Georgia in support of Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), who Trump probably would have car bombed if it wasn’t so hard to get fertilizer and copper wiring these days.
We say: Mike Pence clearly isn’t scared of Trump, so betting on a presidential run at these odds is an absolute steal. Buy YES shares now and sell for a tasty gain when news of an exploratory committee leaks, or the former Veep is spotted eating fried Oreos at the Iowa State Fair.
4% chance that Trump is back on Twitter by Independence Day (Polymarket).
Lately, Elon Musk has been acting awfully squirrelly about his plans to buy Twitter and re-instate Trump’s account. Expect this acorn to remain out of the former President’s reach until fall.
We say: Avoid. Avoid. Avoid.
22% chance that Joe Biden wins a second term (PredictIt).
Bettors are having a senior moment when they put Biden’s re-election odds below Trump’s (29%) and Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (27%). They’re right that Uncle Joe is an underdog against virtually any Republican, but at 22%, the value is all on Biden’s side of the trade.
We say: Joe Biden isn’t going anywhere. Buy YES shares on his re-election and sell them when the market finally realizes that an incumbent president has at least a 35% chance of winning.
87% chance Republicans win the House in November (PredictIt).
The only thing crashing faster than the stock market is voters’ confidence in Joe Biden, and with it, their desire to vote for Democrats in November.
Betting YES on the GOP re-taking the House should be rated a AAA bond. Sell your car, sell your house, sell your kids, and buy all you can.
FOR MORE DETAIL AND OTHER OPPORTUNITIES TO BANK THIS KNOWLEDGE…
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