For the past year, Chuck Schumer has been turning the crank on a bill to kick China in the balls. This bill is known around Washington, D.C., as “USICA,” (political squares love acronyms); and on Kalshi, where we’re betting on it, it goes by this name:
On past podcasts, we’ve said that the USICA is guaranteed to become law soon, owing to the fact that it received 70+ votes in the Senate and is fully dedicated to bipartisan priorities like (1) subsidizing jobs in every Congressman’s district; and (2) trashing China.
But recent indicators are calling this thesis into question.
So we asked Zubby Badge what he thought about USICA’s fate. Zubby is easily the most profitable bettor on Capitol Hill’s affairs, so listen closely to what he says:
The bear case for USICA is straightforward. According to Zubby:
“I would rather bet on it not passing… It’s getting very late in the year” and it’s functionally, “a negotiation between the House Democrats and the Senate Republicans. Those are two very different groups.”
Keendawg answered that this whole debate has degraded into a lousy knock-off of MEAN GIRLS:
“It’s high school. The Democrats have the one-over on Republicans. And the Republicans are like f*ck you, we’re going to win the election and write whatever bill we want.”
Time is against this bill. So are the incentives for Republicans to cooperate. Yet, the odds remain attractively long to bet on its failure (35c “NO”). With that as pretext, I know what I’m doing: