Things have gotten so bad for Joe Biden that Republicans now believe they can win in Colorado. Even better, its primary is on Tuesday, where GOP voters will pick the slate of candidates who will take-on incumbents Jared Polis, Michael Bennet, and more.
And according to our special guest, Matt Connelly, betting markets for both the primary and general are badly miss-priced compared to reality on the ground.
Matt Connelly is the founder of Campfire Media, a right-of-center media source for local Colorado politics. Matt is also a veteran of innumerable GOP campaigns in Western states, including Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jon Huntsman, and Cory Gardner’s.
He’s offering his sharp local insights to make some surprising predictions. In fact, on this podcast, he names two 5% longshots that local experts know are closer to coin flips than slam dunks.
For the general, Matt is 100% buying the media hype about his home state being in play.
“I think our race for governor and our race for senate are two to watch closely,” he told SSG.
As for Colorado’s on-again, off-again relationship with Republicans, he told us that:
“It’s very difficult in some ways to classify voters here in Colorado. They don’t always do what you expect them to do. In previous years, they’ve voted at the same time to legalize marijuana in the same election that they’ve recalled state senators for supporting more gun control legislation.”
He’s expecting this unpredictability to be a major force in Tuesday’s primaries. According to Connelly, prediction markets are about to miss by a wide margin. Several underdogs remain in the hunt, and a few favorites are dead men walking.
To find out who, listen to this episode.
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