Last week Sen. Joe Manchin did what Joe Manchin tends to do, which is completely nuke everyone’s expectations for the Senate.
Specifically, Sen. Manchin announced a top secret agreement with Sen. Chuck Schumer to tax and spend $700 billion through the arcane Budget Reconciliation process.
Conventional wisdom says that Democrats have finally locked-in the crucial 50 votes to pass the long-stalled Build Back Better plan, which they have rebranded as “the Inflation Reduction Act” (lol).
But don’t count the points yet. A few key obstacles remain, all of which we will unpack in this post. They include:
- Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — She helped block this bill last year and hasn’t said anything meaningful at all about Manchin’s plan. What does that mean?
- Parliamentary math — COVID infections are thinning the Democrats’ bench and making it impossible for them to gather the necessary 50 votes
- The Senate Parliamentarian — She has the power to throw out key aspects of the bill for arcane, but important, procedural reasons. Will she?
And if the bill does pass, it will influence the probability of other highly-bettable events occurring this year, like:
- Gay marriage passing the Senate
- NATO expansion
So in an extremely meaty episode of SSG, we are taking on all of the above and more.
For those of you seeking a TL:DR, here’s what our guest, Zubby (#1 most profitable senate predictor) says:
Will Kyrsten Sinema kill the bill?
“Almost everything in this bill sort of lines-up with stuff that Sinema has publicly agreed to previously.”
What is the most likely reasons that the Inflation Reduction Act won’t pass in time for your bets to hit?
“The number one issue for the August Recess is COVID. If a bunch of Dems get COVID, there’s nothing they can do about it. If that happens late next week or two weeks in a row, the PredictIt market is going to resolve NO.”
How to read the tea leaves as more information comes in:
“Really be careful what you’re listening to. POLITICO going nuts over the carried interest loophole being in jeopardy, that is by no means going to kill the bill. Do not panic buy, do not panic sell if you see some news story about that coming out.
Is Sinema’s known beef with Schumer & Manchin over the “carried interest loophole” enough to sink the bill?
“I almost think it [the carried interest loophole] is in there specifically so that she [Sinema] can put her own spin on it and take it out.”
Zubby is almost completely certain that this bill will pass on time to pay the PredictIt bet for YES.
I, your humble SSG host, am not quite so sure. Kyrsten Sinama still hasn’t said a word about this bill other than that she is reviewing it. That doesn’t tell us she’s a no, but it does tell us that she’s weighing her options. In the low-60s, I’m comfortable holding YES shares. But I’m not looking to buy anything above 70.
FOR THE FULL STORY ABOUT RECONCILIATION, GAY MARRIAGE, NATO, AND THE AZ PRIMARY, WATC OR LISTEN BELOW:
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