A Sarah Palin Upset Brewing in Alaska?

Animals,

Right now, one of the weirdest elections in memory is happening in Alaska, and that should be a massive green light telling you to start betting.

Generally speaking, strange conditions create a lot of volatility in betting markets. That means you can make a lot of money just by taking part in the chaos.

This is exactly what is happening as RANKED CHOICE VOTING (RCV) debuts in Alaska’s special election to fill Rep. Don Young’s vacant Congressional seat.

Even the best political forecasters are having trouble identifying who has the advantage in a field that features:

  • Former governor and VP candidate, Sarah Palin
  • Heir to a longtime state GOP dynasty, Nick Begich
  • The Democratic Paty’s candidate, Mary Peltola

And just as importantly:

  • The unfamiliar ranked choice voting system

A popular viewpoint is that the RCV process will split the Republican vote and allow the Democrat, Mary Peltola, to pull-off a massive upset.

Discussing this possibility (currently a 5-to-1 payday on PredictIt), is Zubby, who regularly sits in the Top 10 most profitable traders in the game. Even if you disagree with his strategy, Zubby’s breakdown of the race is extremely compelling and critical information for anyone betting.

A SARAH PALIN UPSET BEWING IN ALASKA?

TL:DR — THE PELTOLA PLAY:

  • Sarah Palin has been unpopular in Alaska (>50% unfavorables) ever since she left to be John McCain’s VP, and hasn’t received a hero’s welcome on this campaign
  • That said, her GOP challenger, Nick Begich, is almost certainly going to be eliminated first
  • However, Alaska is not Alabama. In 2020, Joe Biden received about 43% of the vote.
  • Zubby’s thesis: everyone knows who Sarah Palin is. If they didn’t rank her 1st, there’s a decent chance they didn’t rank her at all

So…

  • It wouldn’t take that many GOP voters to remember their grudge against Palin, or simply not rank anyone beyond their first choice
  • At the same time, Democrats are unified behind Peltola and face no such problems
  • Ergo, at these odds (~20%), Mary Peltola is an attractive pick to win

FULL DISCLAIMER:

  • I’m not betting this race. Just too busy. Deal with it.
  • Zubby’s play is interesting but not one I’m following. See above.
  • At a minimum, his rundown of the race is the best summary available anywhere. Whether you agree or disagree, it’s required reading for all bettors.

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