How Ranked Choice Voting Affects Sarah Palin’s Alaska Election
It’s hard to oversell how much ranked choice voting (RCV) is affecting elections in the places that use it. This is a big deal for bettors, because confusion equals volatility, and volatility means a chance to win a lot of money quickly — or lose it.
In New York City’s recent mayoral election, the ranked choice process was so confusing to big name reporters at The New York Times and Cook Political — and to the traders who rely on them for information — that Iabvek was able to make a cool $60,000 just by having a marginally better understanding of the complicated process.
Right now, a similar election is happening in Alaska that offers similar rewards. Like New York City’s, it’s the jurisdiction’s first-ever ranked choice contest. And like New York City’s betting market, the price fluctuations have been dramatic.
ALASKA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ELECTION – PRICE CHART
Beware! Conventional reporting has focused on the usual metrics – fundraising, name ID, party affiliation, and the macro political climate.
But the single most important variable in Alaska is RCV voting.
And we’ve got the simplest possible explanation for you. Zubby Badger joins in this video to tell you exactly how the RCV process works, how it’s distorting share prices, and what kind of swings to expect soon.
Do not bet on this race without having a grasp of what is happening (and will happen) once the votes are counted.
RANKED CHOICE VOTING FOR DUMMIES
Now go get after it!