Jon Ralston: “What Happens in Nevada Doesn’t Stay in Nevada”


Ever since Trump took office, Republicans have been getting knocked around badly in Western states like Arizona, Colorado and Nevada that were conservative strongholds as recently as the Obama years. Indeed, the entire West has been inundated by a blue wave.

But, this fall, leaders like Mitch McConnell are licking their lips at what they think is their best opportunity to turn back the tide: two key races in Nevada.

Vulnerable Democratic incumbents Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Gov. Steve Sisolak face serious challenges, and many prominent forecasters list them as the most likely Democrats to lose.

Furthermore, early polls suggest that Nevada is ground-zero for the emerging trend of Latino voters shifting into the Republican camp.

These are some big stories that require true expertise to untangle.

So, on this episode of SSG, Nevada’s top political dog is joining us to tell you precisely what matters and what doesn’t for the Silver State’s election forecast.


Jon is the CEO of The Nevada Independent and Harry Reid’s biographer.

You probably know him better as they guy that cable news shows go to any time Nevada politics are in the news. This is one of the strongest episodes of SSG ever, thanks to Jon.

To whet your appetite, here are a few quotes for your TL:DR diet:

How vulnerable is Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto?

“She’s not a high-profile senator. And… the atmospherics for Democrats are, as everyone knows, not good.”


Is Republican Adam Laxalt a strong candidate?

“From a distance, her opponent, Adam Laxalt, looks like a very formidable candidate. He’s not. He should be in the same category as a Dr. Oz, or a Blake Masters, or a Herschel Walker. He’s a terrible candidate.”

Is it true that Latinos are tending Right?

“It’s clear that the leads Democrats have among Hispanics in almost every poll I’ve seen are not what they once were.”


“Traditionally, the Hispanic electorate – studies have shown this – makes decisions very late. So even if there has been a drift towards Republicans since 2020… I still think it’s too early to tell.”

Why is Nevada such an important state to understand?

“We are really a bellwether. We are a diverse state demographically… a very large Hispanic population, a growing Asian population; I think the trends here are reflective of what’s going on nationally… I don’t think you can say, ‘What happens in Nevada stays in Nevada.'”

Are recent polls right about how close this election will be?

“I know this sounds like a cop-out, but any poll taken in late August of an election year, I dismiss as not being necessarily predictive of anything.”

This is not a podcast to miss. Listen to the whole thing.



Claim a $200 matching bonus on America’s largest (legal) political gambling exchange. Just click here and receive a $200 match.

First-time Kalshi user? Join the $30M Silicon Valley prediction market with some free swag. Sign up with the SSG Members referral code and get free swag + hook it up for your boys here.


Support SSG. Members get access to early picks and exclusive content.
Become a patron at Patreon!

1 thought on “Jon Ralston: “What Happens in Nevada Doesn’t Stay in Nevada”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *