If you’ve been with us for a while, you know what a seesaw ride politics can be. Since Trump lost in 2020, there’s been plenty of time to declare the Republican Party dead, the Biden Presidency a failure, and then back-and-forth again.
Here’s a snapshot of just the last 90 days and the swings one betting market — PredictIt — has made, on Senate control alone.
And here is Polymarket:
This data visualizes how many times the media & pollsters have declared November’s election “over,” only to see new developments flip things around again.
Well, lately, the tides appear to have turned. And if you take the advice of our guest BRIAN DARLING — who was a senior advisor to Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) as well as Sen. Bob Smith (R-NH) — it looks like the trend is here to stay: Republicans win in a walk.
BRIAN IS BETTING ON REPUBLICANS BECAUSE:
- It’s very rare that the party that wins the House doesn’t also win Senate seats too
- The GOP is almost guaranteed to win the House, and Senate is currently 50-50… so that portends good things for Republicans
- Voters favor Republicans by wide margins on the issues that are most important to them: the economy & crime
- Most models think that the Republicans are more likely to outperform their polling than Democrats
However, there is plenty of data that could suggest the opposite — a weak year for the Republicans and a stout defense by the Democrats.
So before you go degen out on every GOP marketplace (many of you have already one this) — get the full story and learn where the best pricing is.
LISTEN TO THE FULL POD & GET ALL THE DETAILS:
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