Which Primary Will Lead the Democrats? + Turkish Elections, Republican VP Running Mates, and the Failure of Prediction Markets in the 2022 Midterms

In this 4-part episode, we cover a variety of markets for traders across the different betting exchanges:

  • In Part 1, Paul Krishnamurthy explains why President Erdogan of Turkey is a safe bet and why he’s more confident of this than the markets.
  • In Part 2, Michael H. tells us where to find utterly insane pricing on Smarkets in the Republican Vice President nomination market and how to short non-starters like Herschel Walker in the 60s.
  • In Part 3, we continue our discussion with Bernie Sanders veteran Ari Rabin-Havt, who does a deep dive into which state will award delegates first in the 2024 Democratic nomination contest. As you’ll hear, understanding the market rules and the weeds of the Democratic party nomination process are the keys to cracking this market.
  • Finally, Gaeten Dugas, Pratik, and Zoltar discuss why election day 2022 was a great day for trading but a bad day for the future of prediction markets.


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