Our Record

June 2019 Report Card

May 2019 Report Card

SEE NEW TRADES BELOW!!!! (2/25/19)

We make a lot more trades than we write about. Here’s a list of every market we’ve bet on and whether we were right or wrong in the end. Check back periodically to see if we’re into anything new that we haven’t documented in long-form.

Two notes on transparency:

(1) We don’t pump and dump. A lot of PredictIt’s big traders use the discussion boards to prey on rookies and those who don’t have time to follow every single detail of politics. We don’t do that. We call it straight and want to be totally up-front with you about our wins and losses.

(2) Some of these trades look pathologically insane. For example, note that we lost money betting that there would be a December 2018 government shutdown (there was, but PredictIt’s rules were a disaster) and won money by betting that there are only 52 Republicans in the Senate currently, even though there are obviously 53. These are what insiders call, “Rules Cucks” — any questions on them, just hit us on the DMs.

Also, be sure to check out the record of guest contributors.

So far, Zoltar-the-All-Knowing leads the pack with an 18-0 record.


NEW TRADES (2/25/19)

Will Sherrod Brown run for President? YES @ 80 cents. UN-RESOLVED.

Will Huma Abedin be charged by end of 2019? NO @ 90 cents. UN-RESOLVED.

Will Clarence Thomas be the next SCOTUS Justice ot leave? YES @ 23 cents. UN-RESOLVED.

Will Stacey Abrams mention “Mueller” in her State of the Union response? NO @ 81 cents. WIN.

Will Trump mention “caravan” in his State of the Union? YES @ 51 cents. WIN.

Will Trump mention “fake news” in his State of the Union? NO @ 85 cents. WIN.

How many Dems will vote for Cloture on bill to end government shutdown? NO on “49 or fewer” @ 85 cents. WIN.

Will there be a State of the Union on Jan, 29, 2019? YES @ 9 cents. Sold at 38. WIN.

Will there by a State of the Union on Jan 29, 2019? NO @ 44. Sold at 89. WIN.

Will Trump meet with Kim Before March 31? YES @ 21 cents. Sold some at 44. Sold the rest at 72. WIN.

How many votes will Bill Barr get from Senate? YES on 60+, 51, and 52 @ 17, 10, and 19. LOSS.

Will James Mattis be Secretary of Defense at the end of 2018? No @ 72 cents. WIN.

Will Bill Barr be the next Attorney General? YES @ 83 cents. UN-RESOLVED.

Will OPM indicate a government shutdown on 12/24? YES @ 54 cents. LOSS.

Will Farm Bill be enacted in 2018? YES @ 90 cents. WIN.

How many Senate seats will GOP hold after 2018 midterms? YES on 52 @ 43 cents. WIN.

Will Elizabeth Warren run for President? YES @ 81 cents. WIN.

Will Beto O’Rourke run for President? YES @ 80 cents. UN-RESOLVED.

Will Kirsten Gillibrand run for President? YES @ 63 cents. WIN.

Will Bernie Sanders run for President? YES @ 70 cents. Sold at 95 cents. WIN.

Will Trump testify to Mueller in 2018? YES @ 19 cents. WIN.

Will Trump pardon Blago? YES @ 5 cents. LOSS.

Will Nancy Pelosi be the Democratic Leader at the end of 2018? YES @ 74 cents. WIN.

Will the Senate confirm a new EPA Admin in 2018? No @ 41 cents. WIN.

How Many Tie-Breaking Votes Will Mike Pence Cast? 4 or fewer 48 cents. WIN.

Will Rod Blum (R-IA) Be Re-Elected? No @ 83 cents. WIN.

Which Party Will Win KY-06? YES on Democrats @ 45 cents. LOSS.

Which Party Will Win CA-45? YES on Democrats @ 62 cents. WIN.

Which Party Will Win IL-12? YES on Republicans @ 63 cents. WIN.

Will Mimi Walters (R-CA) Win Re-Election? NO @ 72 cents. WIN.

Will Peter Roskam (R-IL) Be Re-Elected? NO @ 67 cents. WIN.

Will Pete Sessions (R-TX) Be Re-Elected? YES @ 62 cents. LOSS.

GOP Senate Seats After Midterms – NO that GOP has 60+ @ 93 cents. WIN.

GOP Senate Seats After Midterm? NO on 49 or fewer @ 94 cents. WIN.

Will Dems control the Senate in 2019? NO @ 94 cents. WIN.

Who will control the House? – YES on Democrats @ 68 cents. WIN.

Will Ted Cruz (R-TX) be re-elected? – YES @ 81 cents. WIN.

Which party will win the AZ Senate race – YES on REPUBLICANS @ 57 cents. LOSS.

Who’ll be Speaker of the House in the Next Congress – YES on Pelosi @ 52 cents (my biggest bet). WIN.

Who’ll be Speaker of the House in the Next Congress – YES on Lujon @ 2 cents (hedge). LOSS. THIS WAS A HEDGE. DOESN’T COUNT.

Who’ll be Speaker of the House in the Next Congress – YES on Bustos @ 2 cents (hedge). LOSS. THIS WAS A HEDGE. DOESN’T COUNT.


Will Dean Heller be re-elected? YES @ 60 cents. Sold at 39 cents. LOSS.

Will Claire McCaskill (D-MO) be Re-Elected? – NO @ 64 vents. WIN.

Which Party Will Win TN Senate Race? – YES on GOP @ 74 cents. WIN.

Will Jon Tester (D-MT) Be Re-Elected? – YES @ 66 cents. WIN.

Will Bill Nelson (D-FL) Be Re-Elected? – NO @ 51 cents. WIN. 

Will Tina Smith (D-MN) Be Re-Elected? – YES @ 83 cents. WIN.

Which Party Will Win WV-03? YES on Democrats @ 34 cents. LOSS. THIS WAS A LONGSHOT, NEXT TIME I’LL SKIP THOSE.

Which Party Will Win VA-02? YES on Republicans @ 68 cents. LOSS. D’OH!

Who will be the next to leave Trump’s cabinet? YES on James Mattis. LOSS.

Will Trump pardon Cohen by end of 2019? No  @ 94. Win.

How many NATO allies will hit 2% spending guideline in 2018. YES on 4 or fewer @14 cents. UN-RESOLVED.

Will Paul Ryan be Speaker at the end of 2018? YES @ 81 cents. WIN.

Who will win the Dem primary in MI-13 2018 special election to replace John Conyers? YES on Rashida Tlaib @ 7 cents. LOSS.

Will a federal charge against Donald Trump, Jr. be confirmed in 2018? NO @ 72 cents. WIN.

Who will win the MA-7 Democratic Primary? YES on Ayana Pressley @ 31 cents. WIN.

Will Barbara Comstock be re-elected? YES @ 16 cents. SOLD at 13 cents. LOSS.

Will Sen. Bob Corker vote for Kavanaugh? YES @ 58 cents. WIN.

Will the Senate Judiciary Committee report Kavanaugh nomination in September? YES @ 40 cents. WIN.

How many votes will Kavanaugh get from Senate? YES on 49 or fewer @ 40 cents, 50 @ 8 cents, 51 @ 21 cents, and 52 @ 26 cents. WIN BIG MONEY WIN on 50, LOSS on hedges.

Will Brett Kavanaugh be the next confirmed SCOTUS justice? YES @ 63 cents. WIN.

Will any Democrat vote for Brett Kavanaugh? YES @ 81 cents. WIN.

Will Wilbur Ross be Commerce Secretary at the end of 2018? NO @ 36 cents. LOSS.